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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 6-M.Wile punts 41 yards to NO 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 41-A.Kamara to NO 33 for 15 yards (42-B.Gedeon; 40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model