Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- QB edge to NO: Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.029 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.274 EPA/dropback
- NO defense: +0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- MIN offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
NO
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:38 TD NO (10:38) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – MIN 0
- Q1 03:21 TD MIN (3:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – MIN 6
- Q2 12:01 TD MIN (12:01) 25-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – MIN 13
- Q2 07:32 FG NO (7:32) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 10 – MIN 13
- Q2 00:33 TD NO (:33) (No Huddle) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – MIN 13
- Q3 08:22 FG NO (8:22) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 20 – MIN 13
- Q3 06:08 TD NO (6:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at MIN 45. 26-P.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 26 – MIN 13
- Q4 09:39 FG NO (9:39) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 30 – MIN 13
- Q4 04:30 TD MIN (4:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 30 – MIN 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(3:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 20 for 4 yards (34-J.Hardee).
-
Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 71%
(7:32) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(4:33) 6-M.Wile punts 41 yards to NO 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 41-A.Kamara to NO 33 for 15 yards (42-B.Gedeon; 40-K.Brothers).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(12:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 11-L.Treadwell (23-M.Lattimore).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(2:57) 6-M.Wile punts 40 yards to NO 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.
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Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%
(9:39) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(4:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 39 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 59%
(1:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 30 yards to MIN 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.