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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 11-L.Treadwell (23-M.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.80 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model