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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 27 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model