4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New Orleans Saints 30

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 1, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model