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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 1, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model