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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ARI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 84, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model