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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
Sunday 2018-10-28 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SF
63.0%
ARI
37.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.264 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.375 vs C.J. Beathard (SF) -0.157 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI on 3 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
ARI 18
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SF

Pierre Garcon WR Doubtful Shoulder
Weston Richburg C Questionable Knee
Matt Breida RB Questionable Ankle
Richard Sherman CB Questionable Calf

ARI

Tre Boston S Out Shoulder
Jeremy Vujnovich G Out Hamstring
Corey Peters DT Questionable Ankle
Phil Dawson K Questionable right Hip
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Heel
Mike Iupati G Questionable Back
Justin Pugh G Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 15
–
ARI 18

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:17 SAF SF (4:17) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete short middle [54-C.Marsh]. PENALTY on ARI-3-J.Rosen, Intentional Grounding, 8 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. SF 2 – ARI 0
  • Q2 10:27 FG ARI (10:27) 4-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. SF 2 – ARI 3
  • Q2 04:36 FG SF (4:36) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 5 – ARI 3
  • Q3 06:32 TD SF (6:32) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short middle to 11-M.Goodwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ARI-55-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined. SF 11 – ARI 3
  • Q4 13:37 FG SF (13:37) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 15 – ARI 3
  • Q4 11:11 TD ARI (11:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 15 – ARI 9
  • Q4 00:39 TD ARI (:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 15 – ARI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ARI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:25) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James pushed ob at SF 25 for 15 yards (51-G.Hodges).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 19 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 41%

    (5:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ARI 5, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ARI 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (10:27) 4-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to ARI 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (4:36) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 41%

    (:41) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to SF 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-R.James.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:39) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James to SF 29 for 9 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%

    (11:43) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to ARI 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:06) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to SF 29, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-D.Pettis MUFFS catch, recovered by SF-47-E.Lee at SF 30. 47-E.Lee to SF 30 for no gain (32-D.Coleman).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:57) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James to SF 25 for 8 yards (59-J.Walker).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (13:37) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:59) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to ARI 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.