Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(11:25) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James pushed ob at SF 25 for 15 yards (51-G.Hodges).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.04 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model