Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 5

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to SF 29, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-D.Pettis MUFFS catch, recovered by SF-47-E.Lee at SF 30. 47-E.Lee to SF 30 for no gain (32-D.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.48 EP
50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model