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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 2

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP