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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 46

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ARI 5, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.01 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model