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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 2 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ARI 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model