Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CIN 27, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.41 EP
73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model