4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-4 HC Dirk Koetter
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

5-3 HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2018-10-28 · 13:00 ET Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

TB
47.1%
CIN
52.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 24 17–31
–
CIN 25 18–32
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 8

TB

Vinny Curry DE Out Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Out Calf

CIN

Giovani Bernard RB Out Knee
Vontaze Burfict LB Out Hip
Darqueze Dennard CB Out Sternoclavicular
Tyler Kroft TE Out Foot
John Ross WR Out Groin
Nick Vigil LB Out Knee
Billy Price C Doubtful Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 34
–
CIN 37

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:06 TD CIN (3:06) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 10:07 TD CIN (10:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 05:11 TD CIN (5:11) 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CIN 20
  • Q2 04:43 TD TB (4:43) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – CIN 21
  • Q2 02:38 TD CIN (2:38) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – CIN 27
  • Q2 00:06 FG TB (:06) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 9 – CIN 27
  • Q3 09:21 TD TB (9:21) 25-P.Barber right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 15 – CIN 27
  • Q3 02:17 TD CIN (2:17) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 10-A.Humphries INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at TB 21. 30-J.Bates for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – CIN 33
  • Q4 12:59 FG TB (12:59) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 19 – CIN 34
  • Q4 10:07 TD TB (10:07) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 25 – CIN 34
  • Q4 01:10 TD TB (1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 32 – CIN 34
  • Q4 00:05 FG CIN (:05) 4-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on TB-92-W.Gholston, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. TB 34 – CIN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 90%

    (12:48) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard to TB 20 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 56%

    (9:26) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left tackle to CIN 32 for 6 yards (94-S.Hubbard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:20) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to TB 26, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-A.Humphries to TB 34 for 8 yards (29-T.McRae; 46-C.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:36) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CIN 20, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 37 for 17 yards (49-R.Bullough).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 62%

    (12:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green to TB 26 for 10 yards (24-B.Grimes).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 20 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:45) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CIN 27, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 27.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (:06) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:37) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to TB 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:49) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to TB 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (12:59) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:29) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to TB 32, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:00) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-45-M.Jefferson. TB-36-M.Stewart was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (6:36) 9-B.Anger punts 61 yards to CIN 18, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 12 yards (39-I.Johnson; 89-G.Sanborn).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 54%

    (3:22) 10-K.Huber punts 27 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 92%

    (1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →