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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:48) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard to TB 20 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.06 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model