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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(:06) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model