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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to TB 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model