4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left tackle to CIN 32 for 6 yards (94-S.Hubbard).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model