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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-45-M.Jefferson. TB-36-M.Stewart was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model