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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CIN 20, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 37 for 17 yards (49-R.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model