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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 98

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to WAS 45, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -4.26 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.82 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 98, worth -6.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model