4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2018-10-28 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

WAS
48.1%
NYG
51.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.092 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
NYG 22
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

WAS

Jamison Crowder WR Out Ankle
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Shin
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Rib
Paul Richardson WR Questionable Shoulder

NYG

Jawill Davis WR Out Concussion
Alec Ogletree LB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
NYG 13

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:00 TD WAS (3:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 26-A.Peterson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 01:19 FG NYG (1:19) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. WAS 7 – NYG 3
  • Q3 04:56 FG WAS (4:56) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – NYG 3
  • Q4 09:57 FG WAS (9:57) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 13 – NYG 3
  • Q4 04:11 FG NYG (4:11) 2-A.Rosas 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. WAS 13 – NYG 6
  • Q4 03:16 TD WAS (3:16) 26-A.Peterson right tackle for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYG-36-S.Chandler, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced between downs. WAS 19 – NYG 6
  • Q4 00:21 TD NYG (:21) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 88-E.Engram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – NYG 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:44) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NYG 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 14 for -3 yards (46-K.Bibbs, 22-D.Everett). WAS-46-K.Bibbs was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-57-N.Stupar, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at NYG 14. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (14:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to WAS 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:14) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYG 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 30 for -2 yards (16-J.Chesson).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (3:23) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 91%

    (1:19) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:41) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NYG 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 15-Q.Henderson pushed ob at NYG 37 for 19 yards (5-T.Way).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to WAS 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%

    (8:38) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 18 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to WAS 45, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 61%

    (4:56) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 69%

    (14:23) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-E.Engram.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 88%

    (9:57) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to WAS 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:26) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 14 for 1 yard (56-Z.Vigil, 51-S.Hamilton).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (4:11) 2-A.Rosas 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham to NYG 43 for 15 yards (31-F.Moreau).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham to WAS 19 for 11 yards (36-D.Swearinger).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-B.Fowler to WAS 2 for 13 yards (36-D.Swearinger; 24-J.Norman).