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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 35

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model