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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 21

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.70 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model