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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 2-A.Rosas 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP