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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 30

New York Giants 6 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham to WAS 19 for 11 yards (36-D.Swearinger).

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.78 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP