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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 39

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to WAS 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model