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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 50

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to ATL 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP