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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-11-04 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ATL
50.7%
WAS
49.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.176 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ATL on 6 more days rest than WAS
  • WAS offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Alex Smith (WAS) +0.136 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.200 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ATL

Robert Alford CB Out Ankle
Matt Bryant K Out right Hamstring

WAS

Jamison Crowder WR Out Ankle
Chris Thompson RB Out Rib
Trent Williams T Out Thumb
Ryan Anderson LB Questionable Knee
Kapri Bibbs RB Questionable Shoulder
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Neck
Paul Richardson WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 38
–
WAS 14

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:56 TD ATL (9:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 09:16 TD ATL (9:16) 25-I.Smith left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – WAS 0
  • Q2 03:15 TD WAS (3:15) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 18-J.Doctson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – WAS 6
  • Q2 00:36 TD ATL (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 18-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – WAS 7
  • Q3 10:04 TD ATL (10:04) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 27 – WAS 7
  • Q3 02:20 TD WAS (2:20) (Shotgun) 46-K.Bibbs left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 28 – WAS 13
  • Q4 07:13 FG ATL (7:13) 4-G.Tavecchio 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 31 – WAS 14
  • Q4 03:55 TD ATL (3:55) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 37 – WAS 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:02) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to ATL 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-16-J.Chesson.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:39) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to ATL 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 10 for 4 yards (41-D.Johnson; 16-J.Chesson).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (13:35) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to ATL 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to WAS 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (2:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 85-V.Davis to ATL 3 for 10 yards (59-D.Campbell).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:48) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 15 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:57) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to ATL 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:13) 4-G.Tavecchio 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 13-M.Harris to ATL 20 for 8 yards (20-I.Oliver).