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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 13

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 85-V.Davis to ATL 3 for 10 yards (59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model