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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 28

Washington Commanders 14 – Atlanta Falcons 38

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 13-M.Harris to ATL 20 for 8 yards (20-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP