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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 41

Chicago Bears 14 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 30 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model