Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- Nathan Peterman (BUF): -0.792 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BUF starting Nathan Peterman in place of Derek Anderson)
- BUF offense: -0.313 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CHI offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 9
CHI
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 13:06 TD CHI (13:06) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – BUF 0
- Q2 07:21 TD CHI (7:21) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short right to 80-J.Croom to CHI 34 for no gain (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 35. 39-E.Jackson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at CHI 35. CHI 13 – BUF 0
- Q2 03:38 TD CHI (3:38) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 94-L.Floyd (23-K.Fuller) at BUF 19. 94-L.Floyd for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Receiver and coverage at BUF 18 prior to INT. CHI 20 – BUF 0
- Q2 00:49 TD CHI (:49) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – BUF 0
- Q3 11:06 FG BUF (11:06) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. CHI 28 – BUF 3
- Q3 08:16 FG CHI (8:16) 1-C.Parkey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 31 – BUF 3
- Q4 13:38 FG CHI (13:38) 1-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 34 – BUF 3
- Q4 05:43 TD BUF (5:43) 2-N.Peterman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 34 – BUF 9
- Q4 04:40 TD CHI (4:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 80-T.Burton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 1. CHI 40 – BUF 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 44%
(10:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 23 yards to BUF 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to CHI 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 27 for 12 yards (42-P.DiMarco). PENALTY on CHI-27-S.McManis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 27.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EPp(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%
(2:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to BUF 11, impetus ends at BUF 2, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush. Punt credited as 47 yds. (to spot of first touch by J.Bellamy).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to CHI 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 48 for no gain (44-D.Lacey). PENALTY on BUF-82-L.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 48.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 34%
(10:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to CHI 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(9:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to BUF 46, Center-48-P.Scales. 23-M.Hyde to CHI 49 for 5 yards (48-P.Scales).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%
(5:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 30 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 85%
(11:06) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%
(8:16) 1-C.Parkey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 18 yards to BUF 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 66%
(5:13) 2-N.Peterman up the middle to CHI 32 for 1 yard (91-E.Goldman).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 31Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 71%
(2:36) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete deep left to 13-K.Benjamin (38-A.Amos). Receiver and coverage in front corner of end zone.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to BUF 5, Center-48-P.Scales. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 13 for 8 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%
(13:38) 1-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 16 at the 31 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 19% p(FG) 71%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman sacked at CHI 40 for -9 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris).
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