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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 41

Chicago Bears 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 23 yards to BUF 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.12 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model