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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 0 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model