Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 3 – Chicago Bears 31

(7:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 18 yards to BUF 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model