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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 3 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete deep left to 13-K.Benjamin (38-A.Amos). Receiver and coverage in front corner of end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP