Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 66

Chicago Bears 31 – Buffalo Bills 3

(:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to BUF 5, Center-48-P.Scales. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 13 for 8 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.90 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model