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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 27

Chicago Bears 31 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 1-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model