Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to CHI 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 27 for 12 yards (42-P.DiMarco). PENALTY on CHI-27-S.McManis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.62 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model