Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 91

Buffalo Bills 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to CHI 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 48 for no gain (44-D.Lacey). PENALTY on BUF-82-L.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.99 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 91, worth -5.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model