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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 63

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(:50) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to MIN 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 48 for 24 yards (17-A.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model