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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2018-11-04 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DET
54.6%
MIN
45.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.011 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.145 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DET

Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Doubtful Toe
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
T.J. Lang G Questionable Hip
Darius Slay CB Questionable Knee

MIN

Anthony Barr LB Out Hamstring
Tom Compton G Out Knee
Roc Thomas RB Out Hamstring
Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Rib
Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Groin
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Hamstring
Riley Reiff T Questionable Foot
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 9
–
MIN 24

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:59 TD MIN (9:59) 25-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 13:20 FG DET (13:20) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – MIN 7
  • Q2 04:48 FG DET (4:48) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 6 – MIN 7
  • Q2 03:25 TD MIN (3:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – MIN 13
  • Q2 00:08 FG MIN (:08) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. DET 6 – MIN 17
  • Q4 07:11 TD MIN (7:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right guard to DET 38 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIN-99-D.Hunter at DET 32. 99-D.Hunter for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – MIN 23
  • Q4 01:13 FG DET (1:13) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 9 – MIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 64%

    (11:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-C.Beebe pushed ob at DET 24 for 13 yards (31-T.Tabor).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:01) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIN 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:38) 6-M.Wile punts 40 yards to DET 35, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-B.Powell.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (13:20) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 68%

    (8:19) 9-M.Stafford scrambles left end to MIN 32 for 3 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (4:48) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:50) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to MIN 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 48 for 24 yards (17-A.Jones).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:05) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to MIN 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

    (7:52) 6-M.Wile punts 40 yards to DET 3, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-41-A.Harris.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:10) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 41, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 28%

    (3:39) 6-M.Wile punts 38 yards to DET 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-B.Powell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:05) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to MIN 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:39) (Punt formation) 32-T.Wilson left end to DET 41 for 7 yards (23-G.Iloka).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-K.Golladay to MIN 37 for 18 yards (22-H.Smith).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 18 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (1:13) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 41%

    (:55) 6-M.Wile punts 45 yards to DET 1, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.