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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 83

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 41, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.70 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 83, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model