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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 6-M.Wile punts 38 yards to DET 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP