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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 66

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(8:39) (Punt formation) 32-T.Wilson left end to DET 41 for 7 yards (23-G.Iloka).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.88 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model