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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 55

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-K.Golladay to MIN 37 for 18 yards (22-H.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.61 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model