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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 17

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.42 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 17, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model