4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:20) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to NE 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model